Selected article for: "epidemic start and Î estimate"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_76
    Snippet: In Germany the epidemic is developing much slower than in other European countries and in the USA. The number of sick people here has already reached a maximum of 70 thousand and has stopped growing. The dynamics of changes in the number of cases in Germany is presented in Fig. 6 . The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 08.03.2020, I(0) = 1022 and after 10 days -on 18.03.2020, I(10) = 12194 [3] . Hence, t.....
    Document: In Germany the epidemic is developing much slower than in other European countries and in the USA. The number of sick people here has already reached a maximum of 70 thousand and has stopped growing. The dynamics of changes in the number of cases in Germany is presented in Fig. 6 . The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 08.03.2020, I(0) = 1022 and after 10 days -on 18.03.2020, I(10) = 12194 [3] . Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 12194 1022 = 0.323. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.075, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β − γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus spread rate at the start of the epidemic: β = 0.323+0.075 1−0.39 = 0.53. It is this value of that leads to the model graph in the Fig.6 .

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