Author: Peter X Song; Lili Wang; Yiwang Zhou; Jie He; Bin Zhu; Fei Wang; Lu Tang; Marisa Eisenberg
Title: An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: m9icky9z_68
Snippet: This toolbox is indeed so general that it may be applicable to analyze and evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic in other countries, as well as the future outbreak of other types of infectious diseases. As noted in the paper, our proposed method does need prior data of similar infectious disease to set up initial conditions of the infection dynamics. For this, we analyzed the complete SARS data from Hong Kong given some similarity of COVID-19 to SARS. F.....
Document: This toolbox is indeed so general that it may be applicable to analyze and evaluate the COVID-19 epidemic in other countries, as well as the future outbreak of other types of infectious diseases. As noted in the paper, our proposed method does need prior data of similar infectious disease to set up initial conditions of the infection dynamics. For this, we analyzed the complete SARS data from Hong Kong given some similarity of COVID-19 to SARS. From this perspective, what we learned from this COVID-19 epidemic in this paper is extremely valuable to form initial conditions in the analysis of any future outbreak of similar infectious disease. In addition, understanding forms and strengths of quarantines for the controlling of disease spread is an inevitable path to making effective preventive policies, which is the key analytic capacity that our toolbox offers.
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