Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_113
Snippet: We have developed a model that allows to study the spread of an infection in a society. We have solved this model and calibrated it to Germany. We employ the observed number of reported infections to match the initial increase of the number of sick individuals. In addition, we employ parameter values from the medical literature to quantify e.g. long-run infection rates or individual risks to turn sick after an infection. Given uncertainty about t.....
Document: We have developed a model that allows to study the spread of an infection in a society. We have solved this model and calibrated it to Germany. We employ the observed number of reported infections to match the initial increase of the number of sick individuals. In addition, we employ parameter values from the medical literature to quantify e.g. long-run infection rates or individual risks to turn sick after an infection. Given uncertainty about the precision of these parameter values, we undertook robustness checks with respect to this long-run measure.
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