Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_30
Snippet: (2) where 0 < ; ; < 1 allows for some non-linearity in the process and a > 0: The …rst term N 1 (t) captures the idea that more healthy individuals reduce the individual sickness rate. The second term (N 2 (t) + N 4 (t)) increases the sickness rate when there are more infectious individuals. The third term in squared brackets makes sure that the arrival rate is zero when a share of society is sick (state 2) or healthy after infection (state 4)......
Document: (2) where 0 < ; ; < 1 allows for some non-linearity in the process and a > 0: The …rst term N 1 (t) captures the idea that more healthy individuals reduce the individual sickness rate. The second term (N 2 (t) + N 4 (t)) increases the sickness rate when there are more infectious individuals. The third term in squared brackets makes sure that the arrival rate is zero when a share of society is sick (state 2) or healthy after infection (state 4). The sickness rate satis…es "no sickness without infected individuals", 12 (a; N 1 ; 0; 0; ) = 0 and "end of spread at su¢ ciently high level", 12 (a; N 1 ; N 2 ; N 4 ; ) = 0: In between these start-and endpoints, the infection rate will …rst rise and then fall. This speci…cation makes sure that in the long run a share of around 1 will not have left state 1; i.e. will never have been infected. 11 As is widely documented and reported (see e.g. Nishiura et al., 2020) , there is also a ‡ow of individuals that are infected but do not display any symptoms. We denote this ‡ow by the transition rate 14 is related to 12 in the following sense,
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