Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; Rene Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Klaus Waelde
Title: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: neba2o7n_39
Snippet: The probability to get sick per day For our quantitative predictions it will be useful to present the probability for an individual to get sick over a period of one day or one week. So far, we only talked about rates rs . We denote the probability to get sick over a period of one day, starting in t; by p gs day (t) : This probability is one minus the probability to stay healthy. The probability to stay healthy is, given the exponential distributi.....
Document: The probability to get sick per day For our quantitative predictions it will be useful to present the probability for an individual to get sick over a period of one day or one week. So far, we only talked about rates rs . We denote the probability to get sick over a period of one day, starting in t; by p gs day (t) : This probability is one minus the probability to stay healthy. The probability to stay healthy is, given the exponential distribution of duration in a state, a simple exponential function of the transition rate. We therefore obtain
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