Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng

We know that epidemic control at different times (such as closing city) will have an important impact on the spread of the epidemic, obviously the earlier the better. Combined with the actual situation of Wuhan's closure from January 23, we simulated the comparison of the spread of the epidemic situation on January 18 and January 28, as shown in Figure 5 . The red curve and the orange curve in the figure respectively represent the official curve and the simulation curve (when the "cities were closed" measures were taken on January 23). Obviously, the two curves match well, and the simulated final number of infected people is 69000, which is also close to the actual situation. If the control is started five days in advance, that is, on January 18, the blue line shows that the number of infected people is about 28000, which is 0.42 times of the number of confirmed cases. If the measures are delayed for 5 days, it can be seen from the yellow line that the number of people will be as high as 156000, about 2.26 times of the current number of patients. Zhong Nanshan's team once predicted that if the closure measures were delayed for five days, the number of patients would reach three times of the current number, i.e. 210000 [5] . Our results are more optimistic. It can be seen from this figure that it is necessary to take timely measures to control the spread of the epidemic, which can also be used as a reference for some overseas countries.