Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19

LiXiang Li; ZiHang Yang; ZhongKai Dang; Cui Meng; JingZe Huang; HaoTian Meng; DeYu Wang; GuanHua Chen; JiaXuan Zhang; HaiPeng Peng

In the course of disease transmission, the patient from being infected to the morbidity of disease, we call it incubation period. We assume that it takes x3 days for people to get infected and become aware of the disease, then the incubation period follows D3~N(x3,y3). In this model x3=6.0, the standard deviation y3=2.0. In addition, patients can transmit the virus to other people, so we assume that the average time from infection to transmission is x4 days, which follows D4~N(x4,y4). According to the previous analysis, the disease develops after an average of six days of incubation, and it takes an average of five days from morbidity to diagnosis (according to NHCC) , that is, 5 + 6 = 11 days from the initial incubation of infection to post-morbidity isolation. Clearly, not all 11 days are infectious, and simulations show that setting the average number of infectious days to 8 best fits the official curve. In this model x4=8.0, the standard deviation y4=1.5.