Author: Peter X Song; Lili Wang; Yiwang Zhou; Jie He; Bin Zhu; Fei Wang; Lu Tang; Marisa Eisenberg
Title: An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: m9icky9z_26
Snippet: The reproduction number R 0 of an infectious disease is estimated by the ratio R 0 " β{γ, where β and γ are both estimated from their posterior distributions. Because our models consider the quarantine compartment, R 0 might change according to the forms of quarantine protocols. We adopt a standard MCMC algorithm to draw the latent process. Let t 0 be the current time up to which we have observed data pY I 0:t 0 , Y R 0:t 0 q. To perform M dr.....
Document: The reproduction number R 0 of an infectious disease is estimated by the ratio R 0 " β{γ, where β and γ are both estimated from their posterior distributions. Because our models consider the quarantine compartment, R 0 might change according to the forms of quarantine protocols. We adopt a standard MCMC algorithm to draw the latent process. Let t 0 be the current time up to which we have observed data pY I 0:t 0 , Y R 0:t 0 q. To perform M draws of Y I t , Y R t for t P rt 0`1 , T s, we 8 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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