The truth about SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold values is rarely pure and never simple.

Rhoads, Daniel D; Pinsky, Benjamin A

Nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) are the reference standard methods for SARS-CoV-2 detection because of their high analytical sensitivity and specificity. Many NAATs, which use reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-PCR), are clinically validated, technically validated, and authorized by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) to be interpreted qualitatively as "detected" (positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA) or "not detected" (negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA). As of this writing there are over 250 SARS-CoV-2 molecular diagnostic tests that have obtained emergency use authorization from the FDA. The primary results generated by RT-PCR are fluorescent light emissions; serial detection of this fluorescence is plotted and the amplification curves visualized. Positive or negative interpretation depends on whether or not the curve exceeds a specified signal threshold. Part of the resulting process includes determination of the number of cycles needed before the fluorescent signal crosses this threshold (Ct value). In general, the more viral RNA in the initial specimen, the fewer the number of amplification cycles required to generate a positive signal; thus, the lower the Ct value, the higher the viral burden in the primary sample. Though all current SARS-CoV-2 NAATs are authorized only for qualitative interpretation, as of 10 December 2020, the FDA explicitly states that the Ct value results may be reported by the clinical laboratory in addition to the qualitative interpretation. Throughout the pandemic, many scientists, physicians, politicians, and public citizens have attempted to emphasize the importance (or unimportance) of certain pandemic-related interventions, mitigation strategies, the disease itself, and testing approaches. Some have advocated that a specific variable is most important in a testing approach and should be maximized to the potential detriment of the others: analytical sensitivity and specificity, cost, turnaround time, sample type, or accessibility of collection. If the truth was obvious, then there would be little debate, but the debate has been important and earnest. As Oscar Wilde wrote, "The truth is rarely pure and never simple." We suggest that this quote describes the current situation on the debate over the relevance of Ct values, and we will explore the clinical utility of quantitative SARS-CoV-2 testing here.