Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_22
Snippet: Some properties of the distribution Ï(Ï„ 1 ) can be inferred from the behavior of patients. Before symptoms arise, only very few patients will know they have been infected, seek medical care, and get their case confirmed (i.e., Ï(Ï„ 1 ) ≈ 0 for Ï„ 1 ≈ 0). The majority of patients will contact hospitals/doctors when they have been infected for a duration of Ï„ inc . The distribution Ï(Ï„ 1 ) thus reaches its maximum near or shortly after Ï„.....
Document: Some properties of the distribution Ï(Ï„ 1 ) can be inferred from the behavior of patients. Before symptoms arise, only very few patients will know they have been infected, seek medical care, and get their case confirmed (i.e., Ï(Ï„ 1 ) ≈ 0 for Ï„ 1 ≈ 0). The majority of patients will contact hospitals/doctors when they have been infected for a duration of Ï„ inc . The distribution Ï(Ï„ 1 ) thus reaches its maximum near or shortly after Ï„ inc . Since patients are most likely to test positive after experiencing symptoms, we choose a gamma distribution
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