A Simple Clinical Prediction Tool for COVID-19 in Primary Care with Epidemiology: Temperature-Leukocytes-CT Results.

Hao, Wanming; Zhao, Long; Yu, Xinjuan; Wu, Song; Xie, Weifeng; Wang, Ning; Lv, Weihong; Sood, Akshay; Leng, Shuguang; Li, Yongchun; Sun, Qing; Guan, Jun; Han, Wei

BACKGROUND Effective identification of patients with suspected COVID-19 is vital for the management. This study aimed to establish a simple clinical prediction model for COVID-19 in primary care. MATERIAL AND METHODS We consecutively enrolled 60 confirmed cases and 152 suspected cases with COVID-19 into the study. The training cohort consisted of 30 confirmed and 78 suspected cases, whereas the validation cohort consisted of 30 confirmed and 74 suspected cases. Four clinical variables - epidemiological history (E), body temperature (T), leukocytes count (L), and chest computed tomography (C) - were collected to construct a preliminary prediction model (model A). By integerizing coefficients of model A, a clinical prediction model (model B) was constructed. Finally, the scores of each variable in model B were summed up to build the ETLC score. RESULTS The preliminary prediction model A was Logit (YA)=2.657X₁+1.153X₂+2.125X₃+2.828X₄-10.771, while the model B was Logit (YB)=2.5X₁+1X₂+2X₃+3X₄-10. No significant difference was found between the area under the curve (AUC) of model A (0.920, 95% CI: 0.875-0.953) and model B (0.919, 95% CI: 0.874-0.952) (Z=0.035, P=0.972). When ETLC score was more than or equal to 9.5, the sensitivity and specificity for COVID-19 was 76.7% (46/60) and 90.1% (137/152), respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values were 75.4% (46/61) and 90.7% (137/151), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The ETLC score is helpful for efficiently identifying patients with suspected COVID-19.