Quantifying transmission of emerging zoonoses: Using mathematical models to maximize the value of surveillance data

Monique R. Ambrose; Adam J. Kucharski; Pierre Formenty; Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum; Anne W. Rimoin; James O. Lloyd-Smith

is equal between all locality pairs, we expect that the actual amount of shared transmission 1276 between two localities is strongly influenced by the distance between those localities. We 1277 conducted two simulations using localities with set geographic locations and inter-locality 1278 . CC-BY 4.0 International license is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. It . https://doi.org/10.1101/677021 doi: bioRxiv preprint transmissions depending on the spatial relationship of the localities. We took the 178 GPS 1279 records available from monkeypox surveillance in the DRC during the 1980s and simulated 1280 transmission across localities with the same coordinates and the same district and region 1281 boundaries. Two types of inter-locality transmission rules were explored. In the first of these, 1282 inter-locality transmissions were assumed to occur equally into a source locality's five closest 1283 neighbors. In the second set of simulations, inter-locality transmissions from a source locality 1284 were assumed to occur equally among all outside localities within 30 km of the source locality. 1285