Author: Tanujit Chakraborty; Indrajit Ghosh
Title: Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: A data-driven analysis Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: ba6mdgq3_29
Snippet: The proposed model can be looked upon as an error remodeling approach in which we use ARIMA as the base model and remodel its error series by wavelet-based time series forecasting technique to generate more accurate forecasts. This is in relevance to model misspecification in which disturbances in the nonlinear time series of COVID-19 cases cannot be correctly modeled with the ARIMA model. Therefore, if the error series generated by ARIMA is adeq.....
Document: The proposed model can be looked upon as an error remodeling approach in which we use ARIMA as the base model and remodel its error series by wavelet-based time series forecasting technique to generate more accurate forecasts. This is in relevance to model misspecification in which disturbances in the nonlinear time series of COVID-19 cases cannot be correctly modeled with the ARIMA model. Therefore, if the error series generated by ARIMA is adequately modeled and incorporated with the forecasts, the performance of the out-of-sample estimates can be improved, even though marginally at times.
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