Covid-19 mortality rates in Northamptonshire UK: initial sub-regional comparisons and provisional SEIR model of disease spread

Petford, Nick; Campbell, Jackie

We analysed mortality rates in a non-metropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) to understand SARS-CoV-2 disease fatalities at sub 1000000 population levels. A numerical (SEIR) model was then developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 in Northamptonshire. A combined approach using statistically-weighted data to fit the start of the epidemic to the mortality record. Parameter estimates were then derived for the transmission rate and basic reproduction number. Age standardised mortality rates are highest in Northampton (urban) and lowest in semi-rural districts. Northamptonshire has a statistically higher Covid-19 mortality rate than for the East Midlands and England as a whole. Model outputs suggest the number of infected individuals exceed official estimates, meaning less than 40 percent of the population may require immunisation. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners develop bespoke mitigations, guided by local population demographics.