Relationship between Average Daily Temperature and Average Cumulative Daily Rate of Confirmed Cases of COVID-19

Behzad Pirouz; Amirsina Golmohammadi; Hasti Saeidpour Masouleh; Galileo Violini; Behrouz Pirouz

This study analyzed the possible correlation of daily average air temperature with the epidemic rate of the coronavirus (COVID-19) using significant differences analysis between the datasets. The research hypothesis is that in regions with a significant difference in the average daily temperature, the average cumulative daily rate of confirmed cases would also is different significantly. Conversely, to the absence of a significant difference in daily temperature, would correspond no significant difference in the rate of confirmed cases. The hypothesis was investigated through statistical analysis. In order to minimize the impact on the results of factors like the policy of the government or cultural differences among countries (food, exercise, weight, etc.), three case studies within five countries, namely Iran, Italy, Germany, Spain, and United States were compared separately. This comparison using statistical analysis through F-test and Independent-Samples T-Test of the daily temperatures and daily rate of confirmed cases shows that there is a correlation between the average temperature and the epidemic rate, and this is especially evident when differences in average daily temperature are significantly larger, as it happens for Bandar Abbas in Iran, Milan in Italy, Santa Cruz in Spain, and Los Angeles in the US. Besides, the analysis of the average air temperatures shows that the epidemic rates of COVID-19 were higher in the case studies with a lower average temperature. Instead, when no significant differences exist in the average daily temperature of two cities in the same country, there is no significant difference in the average cumulative daily rate of confirmed cases. In conclusion, the results of this study support the research hypothesis and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method for analysis of the epidemic rates.