Mathematical modelling based study and prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dissemination under the impact of lockdown in India

Tiwari, V.; Bisht, N.; Deyal, N.

COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is rapidly spreading in South Asian countries especially in India. India is the fourth most COVID-19 affected country at present (as on July 10, 2020). With limited medical facilities and high transmission rate, study of COVID-19 progression and its subsequence trajectory need to be analyzed in India. Epidemiologic mathematical models have the potential to predict the epidemic peak of COVID-19 under different scenario. Lockdown is one of the most effective mitigation policy adapted worldwide to control the transmission rate of COVID-19 cases. In this study, we use an improvised five compartment mathematical model i.e. Susceptible (S) - exposed (E)- infected (I)- recovered (R)- death (D) (SEIRD) to investigate the progression of COVID-19 and predict the epidemic peak under the impact of lockdown in India. The aim of this study to provide the most accurate prediction of epidemic peak and to evaluate the impact of lockdown on epidemic peak shift in India. For this purpose, we examine most recent data (up to July 10, 2020) to enhance the accuracy of outcomes from the proposed model. The obtained results indicate that COVID-19 epidemic peak would appear on around mid-August 2020 in India and corresponding estimated cases would be 2.5X10^6 under current scenario. In addition, our study indicates that existence of under-reported cases (~10^5) during post-lockdown period in India. It is expected that nationwide lockdown would lead to epidemic peak suppression in India. The obtained results would be beneficial for determining further COVID-19 mitigation policies not only in India but globally.