Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling

tianyi qiu; Han Xiao

Another issue was about the early release of Wuhan. We experimented with the release time point of 150 days after the occurrence of patient zero, which is Apr. 27 th , 2020 (Figure 4b) . Results showed that, at that time the epidemic seemed to be under control with only 168 infected with symptoms and 2,912 with medical care on Apr. 27 th , 2020 ( Figure 4c ) and kept decreasing until Mar 9 th , 2020, in which the status number of infected with symptoms and 2,912 with medical care was 178 and 2,201 respectively. However, the number of exposed people increased from 863 on Apr. 27 th to 1,085 on Mar 9 th , 2020, with the epidemic rapidly rebounded. After 120 days of releasing the city, on Aug. 25 th , 2020, 11,203 exposed, 2,315 infected with symptoms and 20,516 with medical care were predicted (Figure 4d ). The beds in hospitals would not be enough again on Oct. 2 nd , 2020 with over 256,730 accumulated infections.