Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling

tianyi qiu; Han Xiao

Another noteworthy point is the public gathering events. Since the epidemic is overlapped with the Chinese Lunar New Year, public gathering events such as banquet of one thousand families in Wuhan could promote the spread of the epidemic. By adding a small turbulence (5%) in transmission parameter α on Jan 20 th , 2020, 4,194 more people would be infected at the end point, which indicated the public gathering events at the early period of the epidemic should be stopped. Thus, the Chinese government prohibited the public gathering events with policies such as close large public places, extend the winter holiday for both staff and students. It is noted that, Japan and Koran also organized public gathering activities such as marathons, sacrifices activities, and rally in early February, 2020, which would be inconducive to the prevention and control of the epidemic.