“Stay nearby or get checked”: A Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy,()

Brethouwer, Jan-Tino; van de Rijt, Arnout; Lindelauf, Roy; Fokkink, Robbert

This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on a population and then partly lifted while long-range transmission is kept at a mini-mum. Simulated spreading patterns resemble contemporary distributions of Covid- 19 across EU member states, German and Italian regions, and through New York City, providing some model validation. Results suggest that our proposed strategy may significantly flatten a second wave. We also find that post-lockdown flare-ups remain local longer, aiding geographical containment. Public policy may target long ties by heavily focusing medical testing and mobility tracking efforts on traffic and transport. We propose a policy in which individuals that travel and interact with many people need to be regularly tested (checked). This policy can be communi-cated to the general public as a simple and reasonable principle: Stay nearby or get checked.