Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province

Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang

⟨ Figure 4 is near here ⟩ Under the current rigorous integrated control and self-protection measures, the time series of T (t) depicted in Figure 4 (a) shows that the cumulative number of confirmed cases will continue growing slowly for some duration and tend to its predicted maximum, which is 13155. Besides, although the number of hospitalized individuals has peaked on around February 12th, 2020, but it will not shrink to zero in the near future (Figure 4 (c) ). Obviously, new infections would occur as long as the infectious individuals who have not been detected exist once people start relieve self-isolation and protection. It is the number of undetected infectious individuals that determines when people's lives are able to return back to normal. Hence we should closely follow the total number of I(t) and R(t). Figure 4 (d) displays that the number of infectious individuals has been decreasing gradually since the end of January. However, it will not descent down to 1 until late March, which infers that people should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep personal protect before April.