Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province

Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang

To examine the impact of partial lifting control measures on disease transmission, we plot the predicted time series of the number of cumulative confirmed cases, T (t), and the number of the infectious individuals, I(t)+A(t), with different contact rates ( Figure 6 ). Assuming that the adjusting time is from March 5th, 2020, Figure 6 (a) and (b) illustrate that contact rate with 20% of the initial value c 0 will not cause the disease re-bounce. However, the epidemic period will be extended for about 40 days until early May and the cumulative number of confirmed cases will increase by around 0.5% to 13227. While if the starting time of the adjusting is postponed to March 20th, the epidemic time of disease will be extended for about one week and the cumulative number of confirmed cases will increase by only around 0.05% to 13161, compared with the scenario of no changes. Nevertheless, if the contact rate is half of the initial value, i.e. q 1 = 0.5 and R e (t) = 1.68, COVID-19 will re-bounce All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.