Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio

From these data, we can know the risk of death from any health cause: it is about 1000 deaths for every 100,000 people, or one in a hundred, and does not depend much on where you live. To verify this overall number "locally", we can analyze the data for New York, as given in the graph "The Conquest of Pestilence in New York City" from 1800 onwards, published by the Board of Health and the Health Department. This is a typical modern city that had grown in population from 120,000 to about 8 million people, and includes characteristics of immigration, high-density living, mass transportation, high-rise apartments, modern health care, national and international trade, and a large flow of inbound-outbound travel, in other words, globalization. The biggest improvement in health has come from introducing effective hygiene and anti-infection measures, and from improved health prevention and treatment (not from wonder drugs): we have learned how to treat sick people, cure problems and reduce the spread of bad diseases. It is an expensive investment and it is hard work that requires devoted and trained professionals. As a result, after curing and containing many pestilences during the 19th century, the average death rate in New York over the last hundred years has fallen to 10 to 11 per 1000 people, or almost exactly the same one-in-a-hundred rate as the world rate. So modern cities behave pretty much like whole countries, as far as average or overall death rates are concerned.