Revealing the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Ojal, J.; Brand, S. P.; Were, V.; Okiro, E. A.; Kombe, I. K.; Mburu, C.; Aziza, R.; Ogero, M.; Agweyu, A.; Warimwe, G. M.; Uyoga, S.; Adetifa, I. M. O.; Scott, J. A.; Otieno, E.; Ochola-Oyier, L. I.; Agoti, C. N.; Kasera, K.; Amoth, P.; Mwangangi, M.; Aman, R.; Ng'ang'a, W.; Tsofa, B.; Bejon, P.; Barasa, E.; Keeling, M. J.; Nokes, D. J.

Policy makers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. Data suitable for this purpose are scant. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 34 - 41% of residents infected, and will peak elsewhere in the country within 2-3 months. Despite this penetration, reported severe cases and deaths are low. Our analysis suggests the COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya may be far less than initially feared. A similar scenario across sub-Saharan Africa would have implications for balancing the consequences of restrictions with those of COVID-19.