Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_31
Snippet: Right after the COVID-19 outbreak in China, many studies have estimated the epidemiological parameters, which are essential to calibrate the epidemic models. However, we noticed that there exists a variety regarding the epidemiological parameters. Based on 1099 patients in 31 provincial municipalities through January 29 th , 2020, Guan et al. (2020) estimated that the median incubation period was 3.0 days, ranging between 0 to 24.0 days. This med.....
Document: Right after the COVID-19 outbreak in China, many studies have estimated the epidemiological parameters, which are essential to calibrate the epidemic models. However, we noticed that there exists a variety regarding the epidemiological parameters. Based on 1099 patients in 31 provincial municipalities through January 29 th , 2020, Guan et al. (2020) estimated that the median incubation period was 3.0 days, ranging between 0 to 24.0 days. This median incubation period was shorter than the previous studies based on smaller sample sizes, in which the estimated time from infection to illness onset was 5-5.2 days (Gardner, 2020; Q. Li et al., 2020) . Du et al. (2020) considered the delay from symptom onset to case detection as 4-5 days. Considering the possibility of asymptomatic infections, we adopt a relatively short mean incubation period as 3 days and mean infectious period as 4 days .
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