Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde
Title: Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: h86mpz6o_33
Snippet: The sickness rate satis…es "no sickness without infected individuals", 12 (a; N 1 ; 0; 0; ) = 0 and "end of spread at su¢ ciently high level", 12 (a; N 1 ; N 2 ; N 4 ; ) = 0: In between these startand endpoints, the infection rate will …rst rise and then fall. This speci…cation makes sure that in the long run a share of around 1 will not have left state 1; i.e. will never have been infected. 7 We refer to as the long-run share of infected .....
Document: The sickness rate satis…es "no sickness without infected individuals", 12 (a; N 1 ; 0; 0; ) = 0 and "end of spread at su¢ ciently high level", 12 (a; N 1 ; N 2 ; N 4 ; ) = 0: In between these startand endpoints, the infection rate will …rst rise and then fall. This speci…cation makes sure that in the long run a share of around 1 will not have left state 1; i.e. will never have been infected. 7 We refer to as the long-run share of infected individuals once the epidemic is over.
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