Collateral Crises of Gun Preparation and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Infodemiology Study

Caputi, Theodore L; Ayers, John W; Dredze, Mark; Suplina, Nicholas; Burd-Sharps, Sarah

BACKGROUND: In the past, national emergencies in the United States have resulted in increased gun preparation (ie, purchasing new guns or removing guns from storage); in turn, these gun actions have effected increases in firearm injuries and deaths. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper was to assess the extent to which interest in gun preparation has increased amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic using data from Google searches related to purchasing and cleaning guns. METHODS: We fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model over Google search data from January 2004 up to the week that US President Donald Trump declared COVID-19 a national emergency. We used this model to forecast Google search volumes, creating a counterfactual of the number of gun preparation searches we would expect if the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred, and reported observed deviations from this counterfactual. RESULTS: Google searches related to preparing guns have surged to unprecedented levels, approximately 40% higher than previously reported spikes following the Sandy Hook, CT and Parkland, FL shootings and 158% (95% CI 73-270) greater than would be expected if the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred. In absolute terms, approximately 2.1 million searches related to gun preparation were performed over just 34 days. States severely affected by COVID-19 appear to have some of the greatest increases in the number of searches. CONCLUSIONS: Our results corroborate media reports that gun purchases are increasing amid the COVID-19 pandemic and provide more precise geographic and temporal trends. Policy makers should invest in disseminating evidence-based educational tools about gun risks and safety procedures to avert a collateral public health crisis.