Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model

Hao Xiong; Huili Yan

and R(t) respectively represent the number of individuals in the exposed, identified and recovered states at date t (in days in later analyses). T E and T I were the mean exposed period (assumed to be the same as incubation) and treatment period; b is the risk of transmission per contact, k is the average contact by a person. Formulation (1) means a normal individual would turn to be an exposed individual with probability if she/he contacts with an infected individual; Formulation (2) and Formulation (3) means that, after each exposed period, an incubation individual would turn to be an identified individual. Formulation (4) means after each treatment period, an infected individual would be recovered or dead. The EIR epidemic spreading model is illustrated by figure 1.