Author: Hao Xiong; Huili Yan
Title: Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model Document date: 2020_2_12
ID: er3zmcz2_26
Snippet: According to the data source descripted above, we have T E =14, T I =13, k=5. Then, we can set parameter b for the EIR model to fit the most recent official cumulated data. Using the latest cumulated confirmed number 31161 Feb.6 th 2020 (t=83), we estimate the parameter b=0.038678. Hence, the basic reproduction number R 0 = k*b*T E =2.7. And the transmission rate without prevention measures is β =k*b= 0.1934......
Document: According to the data source descripted above, we have T E =14, T I =13, k=5. Then, we can set parameter b for the EIR model to fit the most recent official cumulated data. Using the latest cumulated confirmed number 31161 Feb.6 th 2020 (t=83), we estimate the parameter b=0.038678. Hence, the basic reproduction number R 0 = k*b*T E =2.7. And the transmission rate without prevention measures is β =k*b= 0.1934.
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