COVID-19 dynamic model: Balanced identification of general biological and country specific social features

Sokolov, A. V.; RAS, L. A. Sokolova Institute for information transmission problem; Science, Federal Research Center Computer; Analysis, Control of RAS Institute for Systems

Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and statistical material, and constructing a mathematical model - those are typical tasks of scientific research. A specific data processing method (balanced identification) and appropriate information technology made it possible to consider a number of models, determine the general biological laws of the virus-human interaction (common to all populations), and the country specific social features of epidemic management in the countries (or cities) under consideration. As the initial data, only new cases are used. Data from different countries is taken from official sources and processed in a uniform way. The obtained estimates of the number of undetected infected are lower estimates.