Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model

Zhang, Jiang; Dong, Lei; Zhang, Yanbo; Chen, Xinyue; Yao, Guiqing; Han, Zhangang

Policy makers around the world are facing unprecedented challenges in making decisions on when and what degrees of measures should be implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, using a nationwide mobile phone dataset, we developed a networked meta-population model to simulate the impact of intervention in controlling the spread of the virus in China by varying the effectiveness of transmission reduction and the timing of intervention start and relaxation. We estimated basic reproduction number and transition probabilities between health states based on reported cases. Our model demonstrates that both the time of initiating an intervention and its effectiveness had a very large impact on controlling the epidemic, and the current Chinese intense social distancing intervention has reduced the impact substantially but would have been even more effective had it started earlier. The optimal duration of the control measures to avoid resurgence was estimated to be 2 months, although would need to be longer under less effective controls. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11071-020-05769-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.