Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Marc Lipsitch; Yonatan Grad
Title: Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: nzat41wu_11
Snippet: Intermittent social distancing can prevent critical care capacity from being exceeded (Figure 3 , Figure S6 ). Due to the natural history of infection, there is an approximately 3-week lag between the start of social distancing and the peak critical care demand. When transmission is seasonally forced, summertime social distancing can be less frequent than when R0 remains constant at its maximal wintertime value throughout the year. The length of .....
Document: Intermittent social distancing can prevent critical care capacity from being exceeded (Figure 3 , Figure S6 ). Due to the natural history of infection, there is an approximately 3-week lag between the start of social distancing and the peak critical care demand. When transmission is seasonally forced, summertime social distancing can be less frequent than when R0 remains constant at its maximal wintertime value throughout the year. The length of time between distancing measures increases as the epidemic continues, as the accumulation of immunity in the population slows the resurgence of infection. Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic could last into 2022, requiring social distancing measures to be in place between 25% (for wintertime R0 = 2 and seasonality, Figure S3A ) and 70% (for wintertime R0 = 2.5 and no seasonality, Figure S2C ) of that time.
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