Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Marc Lipsitch; Yonatan Grad
Title: Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: nzat41wu_5
Snippet: We used a deterministic (ordinary differential equation) mathematical model to simulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The model is an adapted Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with three tracks (Figure S1 ) to account for individuals who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms (95.6%), individuals who are hospitalized but do not require critical care (3.08%), and individuals who are hospitalized and require critical care (1.3.....
Document: We used a deterministic (ordinary differential equation) mathematical model to simulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The model is an adapted Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with three tracks (Figure S1 ) to account for individuals who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms (95.6%), individuals who are hospitalized but do not require critical care (3.08%), and individuals who are hospitalized and require critical care (1.32%) (7) . The mean incubation period was 4.6 days, the infectious period/mean time to hospitalization was 4 days, the mean duration of non-critical hospital stay was 8 days for those not requiring critical care and 6 days for those requiring critical care, and the mean duration of critical care was 10 days (7). Seasonal forcing was incorporated by allowing the basic reproduction number (R0) to follow a cosine curve that peaks in early December (4). We varied the peak (wintertime) R0 between 2 and 2.5 and allowed the summertime R0 to vary between 70% and 100% (i.e. no seasonality) of the wintertime R0 (4).
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