Selected article for: "basic reproduction number and health care system"

Author: Yang, H. M.; Lombardi Junior, L. P.; Castro, F. F. M.; Yang, A. C.
Title: Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in Sao Paulo State, Brazil - Evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release
  • Cord-id: b8ukzhky
  • Document date: 2020_5_5
  • ID: b8ukzhky
    Snippet: We formulated a mathematical model considering young (below 60 years old) and elder (above 60 years) subpopulations to describe the introduction and dissemination of new coronavirus epidemics in the Sao Paulo State, Brazil. From the data collected in Sao Paulo State, we estimated the model parameters and calculated the basic reproduction number as R0 = 6.828. Considering isolation as a control mechanism, we varied the releasing proportions of young and elder persons to assess their epidemiologic
    Document: We formulated a mathematical model considering young (below 60 years old) and elder (above 60 years) subpopulations to describe the introduction and dissemination of new coronavirus epidemics in the Sao Paulo State, Brazil. From the data collected in Sao Paulo State, we estimated the model parameters and calculated the basic reproduction number as R0 = 6.828. Considering isolation as a control mechanism, we varied the releasing proportions of young and elder persons to assess their epidemiological impacts. The best scenarios were release of young persons, but maintaining elder persons isolated. To avoid the collapse of the health care system, the isolation must be at least 80%.

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