Selected article for: "epidemic growth and SEIR model"
Author: Igor Nesteruk
Title: Statistics based predictions of coronavirus 2019-nCoV spreading in mainland China
  • Document date: 2020_2_13
    • ID: bhm2un6v_1
    Snippet: Here, we consider the development of epidemic outbreak cased by coronavirus 2019-nCoV (see e.g., [1] [2] [3] ). Since the reliable long time data are available only for mainland China, we will try to predict the number of victims V of this virus only in this area. The first estimations of V exponential growth, typical for the initial stages of every epidemic (see e.g., [4] ) have been done in [3] . For long time predictions, more complicated math.....
    Document: Here, we consider the development of epidemic outbreak cased by coronavirus 2019-nCoV (see e.g., [1] [2] [3] ). Since the reliable long time data are available only for mainland China, we will try to predict the number of victims V of this virus only in this area. The first estimations of V exponential growth, typical for the initial stages of every epidemic (see e.g., [4] ) have been done in [3] . For long time predictions, more complicated mathematical models are necessary. For example, a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was used in [2] . Nevertheless, the complicated models need more efforts for unknown parameters identification. This procedure may be especially difficult, if reliable data are limited.

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