Author: Kadelka, Sarah; Bouman, Judith A; Ashcroft, Peter; Regoes, Roland R
Title: Comment on Buss et al., Science 2021: An alternative, empirically-supported adjustment for sero-reversion yields a 10 percentage point lower estimate of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Manaus by October 2020 Cord-id: pth2wvan Document date: 2021_3_25
ID: pth2wvan
Snippet: The estimate of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 of 76% in Manaus by October 2020 by Buss et al. relies on the assumption of an exponentially-declining probability of sero-reversion over time. We present an alternative, empirically-supported approach that is based on the observed dynamics of antibody titers in sero-positive cases. Through this approach we revise the cumulative incidence estimate to 66% (63.3% - 68.5%) by October 2020. This estimate has implications for the proximity to her
Document: The estimate of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 of 76% in Manaus by October 2020 by Buss et al. relies on the assumption of an exponentially-declining probability of sero-reversion over time. We present an alternative, empirically-supported approach that is based on the observed dynamics of antibody titers in sero-positive cases. Through this approach we revise the cumulative incidence estimate to 66% (63.3% - 68.5%) by October 2020. This estimate has implications for the proximity to herd immunity and future estimates of fitness advantages of virus variants, such as the P.1 variant of concern. This methodology is also relevant for any other sero-survey analysis that has to adjust for sero-reversion.
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