Author: Sanyi Tang; Biao Tang; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Fan Xia; Tangjuan Li; Sha He; Pengyu Ren; Xia Wang; Zhihang Peng; Yanni Xiao; Jianhong Wu
Title: Stochastic discrete epidemic modeling of COVID-19 transmission in the Province of Shaanxi incorporating public health intervention and case importation Document date: 2020_2_29
ID: aoqyx8mk_15
Snippet: becomes small and the value of 1 ( ) , … , ( ) are reasonable. Because the method above requires that = ∑ =max { , 1 } is positive, which means that at least some fraction of imported cases who entered Shaanxi province on day j would be confirmed during the period 1 , … , , we then can determine the proper 1 and 2 such that > 0 for 1 ≤ ≤ 2 in terms of the distribution of . By using the same method, given the daily number of confirmed lo.....
Document: becomes small and the value of 1 ( ) , … , ( ) are reasonable. Because the method above requires that = ∑ =max { , 1 } is positive, which means that at least some fraction of imported cases who entered Shaanxi province on day j would be confirmed during the period 1 , … , , we then can determine the proper 1 and 2 such that > 0 for 1 ≤ ≤ 2 in terms of the distribution of . By using the same method, given the daily number of confirmed local cases and the probability distribution of the duration from infection to confirmation for local cases, we can also estimate the daily number of newly infected local cases on day t during some time period.
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