The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran

Ahmad Khosravi; Reza Chaman; Marzieh Rohani-Rasaf; Fariba Zare; Shiva Mehravaran; Mohammad Hassan Emamian

At the time of writing this manuscript, the novel coronavirus and the COVID-19 pandemic has already spread to 207 countries worldwide [1, 2] , and the number of infected cases continues to escalate. The Islamic Republic of Iran was the first Middle East country to report a case of death due to coronavirus (19 February 2020) and is currently among countries with the highest prevalence of COVID-19. By 3 April 2020, there were 53,183 confirmed cases in Iran, 3,294 of which had already deceased [3] . Given the rapid spread of the virus, the government immediately responded by establishing more than 40 laboratories to enhance the testing capacity, and consequently, there was a sudden spike in the reported number of positive cases. The first cases were immediately reported to the Health Department, and preventive protocols were developed and put in place to limit the further spread of the infection. These included cancelling in-person classes in schools and universities as of 25 February 2020, and switching to online platforms, as well as public awareness campaigns that encourage citizens to minimize face-to-face contact and promote social distancing. Nonetheless, the timeframe from 20 March to 2 April 2020 coincides with the 'Norouz Spring Holidays' in Iran. During this time, there is significantly higher rates of social activities, visiting family and friends, trips, shopping, and festivals. This is while the epidemic has already spread throughout the country and beyond. Therefore, close monitoring and evaluation is necessary to investigate the efficiency of control measures, determine the potential community transmission patterns, and predict the progression of the epidemic and the trajectory of the epidemic curve.