Author: Ahmad Khosravi; Reza Chaman; Marzieh Rohani-Rasaf; Fariba Zare; Shiva Mehravaran; Mohammad Hassan Emamian
Title: The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: 36fbcobw_5
Snippet: Shahroud, in Shahroud County and Semnan Province, is a city located in the northeast of Iran Shahroud were submitted for viral nucleic acid testing, and two tested were positive. One of these primary cases was a 74-year-old woman who had been hospitalized on February 10, with chief complaints of fever and cough, and a travel history to Qom. This indicates that the epidemic probably started almost one month before it was known to the public. Given.....
Document: Shahroud, in Shahroud County and Semnan Province, is a city located in the northeast of Iran Shahroud were submitted for viral nucleic acid testing, and two tested were positive. One of these primary cases was a 74-year-old woman who had been hospitalized on February 10, with chief complaints of fever and cough, and a travel history to Qom. This indicates that the epidemic probably started almost one month before it was known to the public. Given the high incidence rate of COVID-19 in the region, the aim of this report is to estimate the R 0 of the COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the trajectory of the epidemic and new cases in Shahroud.
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