An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China

Peter X Song; Lili Wang; Yiwang Zhou; Jie He; Bin Zhu; Fei Wang; Lu Tang; Marisa Eisenberg

We applied the R function qh.eSIR in analyses of the data within and outside Hubei. Results are summarized in Figures 15-16 . Our analyses once again clearly indicated that stringent quarantine protocols can largely reduce the spread of COVID-19 both within Hubei and outside Hubei. Yet, it is known that too strict quarantine can cause backfire; people may lose their trust and patience in their committed system, and consequently may try to reduce compliance or even avoid quarantine. We also present the posterior mean probability of staying quarantine compartment in Figure 17 within Hubei and outside Hubei. Note that Jan 23 was not set as a change point for the case of outside Hubei, leading only to two jumps. It is evident that by Feb 8, more than 90% of the Chinese population have taken in-home isolation or as such, reflective to a very strict quarantine protocol enforced in the entire country.