The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

Solomon Hsiang; Daniel Allen; Sebastien Annan-Phan; Kendon Bell; Ian Bolliger; Trinetta Chong; Hannah Druckenmiller; Andrew Hultgren; Luna Yue Huang; Emma Krasovich; Peiley Lau; Jaecheol Lee; Esther Rolf; Jeanette Tseng; Tiffany Wu

There have been a wide range in responses across states since the first case of COVID-19 was announced in Washington State on January 14, 2020. Upon this, the CDC began releasing recommendations to those at risk of being exposed to the virus. The initial recommendations included travel warnings and restricted travel to countries with confirmed cases and sustained COVID-19 spread. These travel restrictions grew to include inbound and outbound travel bans to a list of 26 countries, in both Europe and Asia. 108 Other policies have included social distancing, which has been widely recommended or enforced at various levels of government. This method involves avoiding crowds, staying home, limiting or avoiding visiting vulnerable populations (such as long-term care facilities) and standing at least six feet away from others in public spaces. Some regions have implemented school closures at both the K-12 and higher education level. Business closures have also been recommended or enforced, such that employees should work from home, unless their work is considered essential to the greater public (e.g. health care, grocery stores). To support employees working remotely or staying home when sick, a number of states have also mandated paid sick leave for those who are affected by . Free testing has also been implemented in certain states, so that anyone experiencing symptoms or has been exposed to the virus can now get tested for free. 111 We coded various policies that cancel events and large gatherings as follows: the cancellation of large events, specifically the election postponement in Louisiana, is categorized as " event_cancel ." The separate " no_gathering " policy variable represents policy measures that banned all events or mass gatherings of a certain size, i.e. no gatherings over a certain number of people (where this number has varied by region). The " social_distance " category includes measures that prevent visits to elderly care facilities, close public facilities such as libraries, and require workers to work remotely. The " emergency_declaration " encompasses the declarations of a state of emergency at the city, county, state, and federal level. This declaration allows the affected area to immediately marshal emergency funds and resources and activate emergency legislation, while also giving the public an indication of the gravity of the situation.