Author: Solomon Hsiang; Daniel Allen; Sebastien Annan-Phan; Kendon Bell; Ian Bolliger; Trinetta Chong; Hannah Druckenmiller; Andrew Hultgren; Luna Yue Huang; Emma Krasovich; Peiley Lau; Jaecheol Lee; Esther Rolf; Jeanette Tseng; Tiffany Wu
Title: The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: gtfx5cp4_4
Snippet: We employ well-established "reduced-form" econometric techniques 23, 24 commonly used to measure the effect of policies 25, 26 or other events (e.g., wars 27 or environmental changes 28 ) on economic growth rates. Similarly to early COVID-19 infections, economic output generally increases exponentially with a variable rate that can be affected by policy or other conditions. Unlike process-based epidemiological models, 7-9, 12, 22, 29, 30 the redu.....
Document: We employ well-established "reduced-form" econometric techniques 23, 24 commonly used to measure the effect of policies 25, 26 or other events (e.g., wars 27 or environmental changes 28 ) on economic growth rates. Similarly to early COVID-19 infections, economic output generally increases exponentially with a variable rate that can be affected by policy or other conditions. Unlike process-based epidemiological models, 7-9, 12, 22, 29, 30 the reduced-form statistical approach to inference that we apply does not require explicit prior information about fundamental epidemiological parameters or mechanisms, many of which remain unknown in the current pandemic. Rather, the collective influence of these factors is empirically recovered from the data without modeling their individual effects explicitly (see Methods). Prior work on influenza, 31 for example, has shown that such statistical approaches can provide important complementary information to process-based models.
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