The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds

Following the introduction of extensive control measures in Wuhan in late January, including-among other measures-travel restrictions, social distancing, and requirements for residents to stay within their homes, there was a substantial decline in local transmission [6] [7] [8] . Social distancing measures, such as closure of schools, bars, restaurants, and constraints on individual movements and interactions, are now in place in many countries with the aim of reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 [9, 10] . However, it remains unclear precisely how the timing, duration, and intensity of different measures targeting transmission and burden can reduce the impact of COVID-19. Here, based upon scenarios originally presented to scientific advisory bodies in the UK, we use a mathematical model to assess the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19, and evaluate possible medium-term scenarios as the most restrictive short-term measures are eventually lifted.