Author: Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds
Title: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: g0pxqqga_33
Snippet: We found that adding these periods of lockdown would still result in a high number of ICU beds being occupied, but at much lower levels than the scenario without lockdowns ( Fig. 5a ). Lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R 0 near or below 1 ( Fig. 5c ) , and hence to lead to a reduction in total COVID-19 cases ( Fig. 5b ) . We found that, depending on the threshold ICU bed occupancy at which lockdown periods were triggered, there was a tra.....
Document: We found that adding these periods of lockdown would still result in a high number of ICU beds being occupied, but at much lower levels than the scenario without lockdowns ( Fig. 5a ). Lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R 0 near or below 1 ( Fig. 5c ) , and hence to lead to a reduction in total COVID-19 cases ( Fig. 5b ) . We found that, depending on the threshold ICU bed occupancy at which lockdown periods were triggered, there was a tradeoff between having fewer, longer lockdown periods (lower threshold) and having more, shorter lockdown periods (higher threshold), with the higher thresholds resulting in less time spent in lockdown overall, but higher peak demands on ICU bed capacity ( Table 5 ). Lower thresholds also resulted in more individuals remaining susceptible at the end of the simulation period, potentially increasing the total duration for which recurrent lockdowns would need to be maintained. We assumed that lockdowns would be triggered at a national level rather than at a local level, and that the trigger threshold would not change over time.
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