Spatially‐explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

O'Sullivan, David; Gahegan, Mark; Exeter, Dan; Adams, Benjamin

This article describes two spatially‐explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modelling spatially‐explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalised models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a ‘one size fits all' approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.