The Effectiveness of Targeted Quarantine for Minimising Impact of COVID-19

Alastair D Jamieson-Lane; Eric Cytrnbaum

Italy [3] indicates that the vast majority of deaths occur in patients with known pathologies. It should thus be possible to predict who is most at risk with high fidelity. By controlling which 2/3rds of the population become infected we may avoid overtaxing the healthcare system and thus minimise mortality. We consider a strategy in which initially all of society (bar essential service workers) are locked down for two to four weeks so as to brake the initial uncontrolled epidemic spread. At the end of this time, rather then reduce quarantine measures uniformly over all society, a government could instead engage in a program of 'targeted quarantine'; those individuals with no risk factors would be encouraged to return to work and socialize, while at risk individuals would be asked to remain at home under strict quarantine. The infection would be allowed to pass through the large, low risk population, resulting in a small number of ICU admissions due to occasional unexpected complications.