The Impact of School Closure for COVID-19 on the US Healthcare Workforce and the Net Mortality Effects

Jude Bayham; Eli P Fenichel

School closures do expose the healthcare labor force to increased child care obligations, likely reducing support for infected individuals, which is critical. We also do not know how much a reduction in the healthcare labor force, and in what occupations within healthcare, decreases the probability of COVID-19 patient survival. We do know that the segment of the healthcare work force most responsible for infection control in nursing homes is likely to be among the most highly impacted by school closure induced child care obligations. Given our reasonable estimates of case reductions from school closures, a measure of the increased mortality risk to COVID-19 patients from healthcare absenteeism to care for children is a critical, and to date unknown parameter. This analysis does not include non-COVID-19 mortality that could occur from other conditions if the US healthcare work force is reduced, but risk to these patients should also be considered when deciding about school closings.