Association between COVID-19 mortality and population level health and socioeconomic indicators

Kandula, S.; Shaman, J.

With the availability of multiple COVID-19 vaccines and the predicted shortages in supply for the near future, it is necessary to allocate vaccines in a manner that minimizes severe outcomes. To date, vaccination strategies in the US have focused on individual characteristics such as age and occupation. In this study, we assess the utility of population-level health and socioeconomic indicators as additional criteria for geographical allocation of vaccines. Using spatial autoregressive models, we demonstrate that 43% of the variability in COVID-19 mortality in US counties can be explained by health/socioeconomic factors, adjusting for case rates. Of the indicators considered, prevalence of chronic kidney disease and proportion of population living in nursing homes were found to have the strongest association. In the context of vaccine rollout globally, our findings indicate that national and subnational estimates of burden of disease could be useful for minimizing COVID-19 mortality.