The Influence Of Social Behavior On Competition Between Virulent Pathogen Strains

Joe Pharaon; Chris T. Bauch

x(t) The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. w1=10 2 , w2=10 2 w1=10 6 , w2=10 8 w1=10 6 , w2=10 2 Figure 2 : Parameter plane analysis of the SI 1 I 2 RX model. These dynamics are more complex than those exhibited by the SI 1 I 2 R model, which only predicts persistence of strain 1 for equivalent parameter values. The epidemiological parameters are at baseline values ( Table 1 ). The social parameters are varied. (a) and (d) show no invasion of the mutant strain when 1 = 0.2 and 2 = 0.1 in the ω 1 − ω 2 parameter plane (a) and when ω 1 = ω 2 = 10 2 in the 1 − 2 parameter plane (d). (b) and (c) represent similar qualitative results when for large 1 = 0.9 we get invasion of the mutant strain in the black region and co-existence with the resident strain in the red region. The invasion region is bigger when 2 is lower ( 2 = 0.1 in (b) and 2 = 0.6 in (c) ). Finally, in (e) and (f ) we observe qualitatively different results when we vary ω 2 in the 1 − 2 parameter plane. In (e) , 10 8 = ω 2 > ω 1 , we have invasion of the mutant strain. In (f ) , ω 1 = 10 6 > ω 2 , we have co-existence of the strains. The light gray region in the lower-left hand corner of subpanel (b) corresponds to both strains being extinct.