Estimating the burden of COVID-19 on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: A population-level study

Aburto, J. M.; Kashyap, R.; Scholey, J.; Angus, C.; Ermisch, J.; Mills, M.; Dowd, J. B.

Objective: To determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in the first half of 2020 (from week 1 to week 26 starting June 22) in England and Wales. Design: Demographic analysis of all-cause mortality from week 1 through week 26 of 2020 using publicly available death registration data from the Office for National Statistics. Setting and population: England and Wales population by age and sex in 2020. Main outcome measure: Age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality in the first half of 2020. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the standard deviation in age at death. Results: We estimate that there have been 53,937 (95% Prediction Interval: 53,092, 54,746) excess deaths in the first half of 2020, 54% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 1.7 and 1.9 years for females and males relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period. Conclusions: Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provides a more comprehensive picture of the full COVID-19 burden on mortality. Whether mortality will return to - or even fall below - the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.