Author: Webb, G. F.; Fitzgibbon, W. E.; Morgan, J. J.; Wu, Y.
Title: Predicting the end-stage of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil Cord-id: 6vaqlhtj Document date: 2020_5_29
ID: 6vaqlhtj
Snippet: We develop a dynamic model of a COVID-19 epidemic as a system of differential equations. The model incorporates an asymptomatic infectious stage and a symptomatic infectious stage. We apply the model to the current COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We compare the model output to current epidemic data, and project forward in time possible end-stages of the epidemic in Brazil. The model emphasizes the importance of reducing asymptomatic infections in controlling the epidemic.
Document: We develop a dynamic model of a COVID-19 epidemic as a system of differential equations. The model incorporates an asymptomatic infectious stage and a symptomatic infectious stage. We apply the model to the current COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We compare the model output to current epidemic data, and project forward in time possible end-stages of the epidemic in Brazil. The model emphasizes the importance of reducing asymptomatic infections in controlling the epidemic.
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